Topic: 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum

21st Century Economic reporter Bian Wanli from Hangzhou reported that on May 27-28, the international conference "Bretton Woods system: past 80 years and Future prospects" and 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum were held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province. At the theme conference on "Global Macroeconomic Transformation: debt, inflation and low growth", Zhang Tao, chief representative of the BIS Asia-Pacific region, said, "many changes have taken place over the years. In fact, 80 years is long enough for each individual to see some changes."

As supply shocks persist, central banks need to consider whether they have sufficient tools to deal with them.

Zhang Tao has worked in both institutions of the Bretton Woods system and in the central bank. For the central bank, he believes, these changes have implications on several levels.

On the one hand, over the past 80 years, especially in the past 10 years or recent years, the world as a whole, and central banks in particular, have experienced many changes in the macro environment. When formulating policies, the central bank is actually faced with the impact of both supply and demand. Many central banks will pay more attention to the demand side, but this time the inflation situation is not the same as before. Supply shocks, especially after the epidemic and trade conflicts are closely related, as well as geographical conflicts, geographical tensions and so on, these are actually supply-side shocks and continue. Whether central banks have enough tools to deal with these shocks is a question that central banks need to consider.

On the other hand, the world's debt level is getting higher and higher, it is not only a country's problem, not only developed countries, but also developing countries, the whole world. This high level of debt, including total debt, the corporate sector, the household sector and sovereign debt, is all historically high, and may now be more pronounced at a time of high inflation. People are still talking about whether the current inflation will remain high for longer or what.Botezpoker? But in fact, inflation and interest rates are relatively high, in such an environment, debt sustainability will be a problem.

In addition, with regard to aging and green transformation, whether or not it will bring long-term pressure on inflation, upward or downward pressure is divided. But in the long run, the green transformation is mandatory, and in the short term it may be shock. If this transition is relatively smooth, it will determine whether inflationary pressures are up or down in the future. these are the main issues.

Technology will bring more challenges, and central banks must maintain flexibility and prudence.

On technology, Zhang Tao said, "the productivity will be greatly improved in the future, and it will also bring a lot of uncertainty and costs." It's easy to say, opportunity and cost always go hand in hand. From a financial point of view, the opportunity is great. For example, customers will be more efficient, and the reach of financial services will be wider than ever before. But at the same time, we will also face network security issues, as well as more complex fraud and other behaviors. "

He believes that the adoption of a large number of technologies could put pressure on the entire banking balance sheet in the future. For central bank officials, the digitization of financial services, especially the digitization of money, serves as the "goalkeeper" or "protector" of public finance.BotezpokerWe should try our best to keep up with the situation and trends. For example, it is necessary to study the digital money of the central bank, the digitization of private sector money, various new financial services, open financial services, and so on.

In Zhang Tao's view, there are no established rules for these businesses, so technology will bring more challenges. Unlike traditional macroeconomic challenges, central banks must remain flexible and cautious. In effect, the BIS allows central banks around the world to co-operate. The world has experienced high inflation in the wake of the epidemic, and we need all central banks to co-ordinate and take measures to curb global inflation so that inflation can gradually stabilize. Looking to the future, the future is still very uncertain, and we need to work closely together to deal with it.