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gmanetworkfamilyfeud| Huafu Securities: Supply growth rate in May was higher than the growth rate of production emissions, and lithium prices may fluctuate downward

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Zhitong Financial APP learned that Huafu Securities issued a research report pointing out that imported overseas mines and lithium carbonate are arriving in Hong Kong one after another, lithium carbonate is in sufficient supply, industry inventory and warehouse receipts are at a high level, and upstream pricing mentality is weakening; due to poor expectations for production scheduling, downstream picking up is cautious, and demand for replenishment is weak. The growth rate of supply is higher than that of scheduled production in May, and lithium prices may fluctuate downwards. Looking forward to the 24th year, the surplus situation has not changed, and it is still necessary to rebalance supply and demand through the overfall of lithium prices. the current price is close to the long-term equilibrium price.

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Lithium ore: in April, mainly imported 39300 tons of LCE, month-on-month + 3%, year-on-year + 15%, of which Australia 27400 tons of LCE, month-on-month + 20%, year-on-year-11%. From January to April, a total of 160000 tons of LCE equivalent lithium ore were imported, which was + 22000 tons of LCE/+16% compared with the same period last year. In April, the volume of lithium ore exported to China from Port Hedland, Australia, was-50% from the previous month, and-2% from the same period last year. The rise in lithium prices has spurred an increase in overseas mining, but exports from Brazil and Zimbabwe fell-59 per cent and 5 per cent respectively due to cost, inventory and transportation.

Lithium carbonate: April supply of 73800 tons, month-on-month + 20%, year-on-year + 49%. Of these, domestic 52900 tons, month-on-month + 24%, year-on-year + 90%; imports 21200 tons, month-on-month + 11%, imports + 87%, including imports from Chile 17100 tons, month-on-month + 800 tons. From January to April, the total supply was 231000 tons, which was + 64000 tons / + 38% compared with the same period last year. Among them, domestic 170000 tons, year-on-year + 49000 tons / + 41%; imports 62000 tons, year-on-year + 12000 tons / + 24%. The recovery of lithium prices and the recovery of production after overhaul have stimulated a sharp increase in lithium supply. A large mica project has released a large amount this month, but some production lines in Salt Lake have been short of working carbon for several days, and overseas environmental protection inspectors have no impact on large enterprises for the time being. SMM expects May production to rise by 15 to 61000 tonnes, and Chile's exports of 23000 tonnes to China in April mean a big increase in May imports.

Lithium hydroxide: April supply of 13000 tons, month-on-month + 32%, year-on-year + 8%. Of these, domestic 23200 tons, month-on-month + 7%, year-on-year + 6%; exports 11000 tons, month-on-month-16%, + 7% year-on-year. The cumulative supply from January to April was 4.3 tons, which was-4400 tons /-9% compared with the same period last year. Among them, domestic 82000 tons, year-on-year-4600 tons /-5%; exports 42000 tons, + 1600 tons / + 4% year-on-year. Downstream, the ternary demand for high nickel is strong, and the price of electricity and hydrogen is weak and caustic method is increasing.

gmanetworkfamilyfeud| Huafu Securities: Supply growth rate in May was higher than the growth rate of production emissions, and lithium prices may fluctuate downward

Positive and hexafluorine: April output of 304800 tons (iron lithium 21.4 + ternary 6.2 + cobalt lithium 0.4 + manganese lithium 0.6 + hexafluorine 1.1), month-on-month ratio + 28%, year-on-year + 132%. Among them, iron lithium 214000 tons, month-on-month ratio + 34%, year-on-year + 198%. The total production from January to April was 912000 tons, which was + 384000 tons / + 73% compared with the same period last year. Among them, iron lithium 612000 tons, year-on-year + 325000 tons / + 113%. Positive enterprises in April, but the month-on-month growth rate of production scheduling is expected to be weaker in May.

Lithium supply and demand: there was a shortage of 1400 tons in April, and the shortage mainly occurred in the first half of the month, of which the supply was 85000 tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 21%; the demand was 86500 tons, with a month-on-month ratio of + 24%. From January to April, there was a cumulative surplus of 2000 tons, of which supply was 269000 tons, + 60, 000 tons / + 29% compared with the same period last year, and demand was 267000 tons, + 93000 tons / + 54% compared with the same period last year.

Risk hint: the demand for electric cars continues to be lower than expected.