Liu Mei, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information Egg Market

[introduction] although the intention of breeding units to clean out chickens increased in AprilSpiniphonefree2022However, due to the limited number of older layers, the number of Amoy hens is still lower than that of new layers, the stock of laying hens continues to increase, the supply pressure of eggs is greater, and the price of suppressed eggs is at a low level. In May, the number of eliminated hens is difficult to increase significantly, coupled with the increase in the number of new laying hens, the stock of laying hens will continue to grow, and the center of gravity or pressure of egg prices will continue to decline.

The stock of laying hens continued to increase in April.

According to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, the stock of laying hens in the country was about 12 in April.Spiniphonefree202240 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0. 0Spiniphonefree2022.57%, an increase of 4.55% over the same period last year. The stock of laying hens continues to increase, and is currently at the highest level in nearly three years.Spiniphonefree2022The average monthly price of eggs in the main producing areas is 3.29 yuan / jin, down 4.64% from the previous month and 29.09% from the same period last year. The stock of laying hens continued to increase in April, and the pressure on egg supply continued to increase, offsetting the bullish boost from the improvement in demand during the month. Egg prices fell off-season, and the decline was obvious compared with the same period last year.

The age structure of the chicken is young, and the stock is easy to increase but difficult to decrease.

The holiday boost in April was lower than expected, the egg market was relatively low, the profit of laying hens narrowed, the monthly loss of 0.02 yuan per jin of eggs, and the intention of breeding units to clean out chickens increased. According to Zhuochuang information monitoring data, the number of Taobao chickens in the sample market increased by 17.61% month-on-month in April, and the age of Amoy chickens was advanced to 501 days. Although the number of eliminated hens has increased, the proportion of laying hens over 450 days old in early April is only 8.76%. The number of older layers available for elimination is on the low side, and the number of eliminated hens within a month is not enough to offset the number of newly opened laying hens, so the stock of laying hens continues to increase.

The increase in stock of laying hens will continue in May.

According to the important indicators affecting the number of laying hens, such as the number of supplementary columns, the number of layers, and the base of last month's stocks, it can be inferred that the theoretical value of laying hens in May was 1.246 billion, an increase of 0.48 per cent compared with the previous month. Due to the increase in the number of eliminated hens in April, the proportion of laying hens over 450 days old dropped to 8.62% at the end of the month, and the number of older laying hens was at a low level. at present, breeding units do not have a high intention to look for chickens in advance, but some have molting plans. it may affect the change of the actual stock, and we still need to pay close attention to the situation of eliminated chickens and forced molting.

To sum up, from the point of view of the supply situation, it is expected that the stock of laying hens will continue to increase in May, the supply of eggs will continue to increase, and the supply pressure is still high. In addition, after May Day, there is no holiday boost in the market. In the middle and last ten days, with the rising temperature and high humidity in the south, demand will gradually weaken, so under the influence of strong supply and weak demand, the center of gravity of egg prices in May will continue to move down.